Assembled or made in Vietnam:
the distinction that changes everything.

01One lamp, two journeys

Take a desk lamp. In the first scenario, it leaves a factory in Shenzhen fully assembled. It lands at the port of Hai Phong, gets a new box and a new label, and ships out to Los Angeles. In the second, only the circuit board and the bulb come from China. The metal base is machined near Ho Chi Minh City, the shade is designed and made locally, and assembly and testing happen in a Vietnamese factory.

On paper, both lamps ship from Vietnam. In Washington's eyes, only the second one is Vietnamese. And that distinction now sits at the heart of the country's trade future.

02How Vietnam became indispensable

In 2018, when the trade war between Washington and Beijing began, Vietnam sold $47.5 billion worth of goods to the United States. Seven years later, in 2025, the figure passed $153 billion. To keep selling into America without paying the duties imposed on China, part of the industry moved its production a few hundred kilometres south.

By the first half of 2026, Vietnam had become the country with which the United States runs its largest trade deficit: $114 billion, ahead of Taiwan, Mexico and China, according to US federal data cited by the Wall Street Journal.

But Washington also watches another number. Between January and August 2026, Vietnam sold $122 billion of goods to the United States, and bought $161.9 billion from China.

That gap is not in itself a sign of fraud. It tells the story of the place Vietnam now holds in Asian manufacturing.

Components arrive from China, Korea or Japan, are processed or assembled in Vietnamese factories, then leave again for America and Europe. Washington's question fits on one line: how much of the value is really created there?

03At the negotiating table, it all comes down to origin

Hanoi and Washington have been negotiating a trade agreement since spring 2025. The framework announced that October set a 20% tariff on most Vietnamese goods, and 40% on transshipped goods, those that merely pass through Vietnam to disguise where they really come from. Since then, US court rulings have reshuffled the deck: in mid-⁠October 2026, most Vietnamese goods faced a 12.5% tariff, according to Bloomberg.

On the Vietnamese side, the message is that they are ready. On 7 October, the Ministry of Industry and Trade said almost all of the text had been negotiated. A week later, Deputy Prime Minister Phạm Gia Túc said Hanoi had sent back its final comments, and that the deal would be signed as soon as both sides agreed. The American side stressed that nothing was settled yet. Transshipment and non-⁠tariff barriers remain the most contested points.

In the end, the rate matters less than the rule. Back to our lamp: the rule of origin is what decides whether it pays the duty for Vietnamese goods, or the far heavier one reserved for transshipped ones.

04Hanoi did not wait

Without waiting for the talks to end, the Vietnamese government set its own definition. Decree 384/2026/NĐ-⁠CP, signed on 9 October 2026, takes effect on 1 January 2027. Until now, nothing spelled out what a "made in Vietnam" product actually was: a first draft in 2019 was never adopted.

The logic is easy to follow. A mango picked in the Mekong Delta or coal mined in Quảng Ninh is Vietnamese by nature. For everything else, meaning anything made with imported parts, one of two conditions must be met: the product must be transformed enough to change its tariff heading, or reach at least 30% Vietnamese value content.

Our first lamp would not qualify: a new box, a new label or two parts screwed together do not count. The second would. And the decree goes further: research, design, programming and software testing carried out in Vietnam can count towards the 30%. Hanoi does not only want assembly lines. It wants engineering offices too.

One caveat. The decree governs the "made in Vietnam" claim on the domestic market. It does not decide the origin recognised by US or European customs, which apply their own rules. In the United States, a product must acquire a new name, character or use in the country.

But by giving itself measurable criteria, Hanoi comes to the negotiating table with a clear definition, and tells investors that locally created value will be measured.

05An ambition with long roots

The decree extends a choice made long ago. Under Nguyễn Phú Trọng, Vietnam opened its doors wide to foreign manufacturing and signed free trade agreement after free trade agreement, including the one with the European Union that came into force in 2020. President and General Secretary Tô Lâm is now accelerating that course, with a clear aim: keep more of the value at home, in components, design and technology.

Investors have followed. In the first nine months of 2026, the country recorded $50.4 billion in registered foreign investment, up 76% on a year earlier, of which $21.1 billion has already been disbursed. Manufacturing draws nearly half of new capital and more than 80% of the money actually invested. Singapore leads with 31.7% of new capital, ahead of South Korea at 19.5%.

And France? According to the French Treasury, it ranked only 16th among foreign investors in Vietnam on data published in early 2025, second among Europeans behind the Netherlands, with around 250 companies on the ground. Yet in February 2026, Bpifrance named Vietnam one of the five most promising export markets for French companies, alongside Indonesia, Morocco, Canada and the United Arab Emirates. The interest is there. The presence is still modest.

06Finding a place, literally

If the agreement with Washington is signed, we at Liên expect a new wave of industrial investment. It will land in an already tight market. In the second quarter of 2026, 86.1% of industrial park land in Ho Chi Minh City was occupied, at an average of $187.5 per square metre for the lease term, according to Cushman & Wakefield. Ready-⁠built factories there are 89.7% occupied, warehouses 98.7%.

In the North, it is the way companies set up that is changing. In the first half of 2026, factory projects, ready-⁠built or built to suit, made up 54% of new foreign manufacturing projects in the region and 73% of the capital, against 27% for land purchases. With supply chains being redrawn, speed of start-⁠up is becoming an edge, Savills notes.

In practice, a manufacturer has three routes. The fastest is a ready-⁠built factory, offered by developers such as BW Industrial, Frasers Property, KTG Industrial or SLP, which makes it possible to start producing within months. Next comes the built-⁠to-⁠suit factory, delivered turnkey by a specialist contractor, sometimes with financing, and designed around a specific production line. Last is buying land and building from scratch, which takes more time and more capital. The right choice depends on the sector, the volumes, and how close the plant needs to be to suppliers and ports.

07Before looking for land

With Decree 384 and the agreement in the works, an address in Vietnam will no longer be enough. To come back to our lamp, everything starts with very concrete questions: what will be made on site, what can be sourced from Vietnamese suppliers rather than imported, and which region has the right industrial fabric. The answers then decide the zone, the type of factory and the timeline.

At Liên, we work with European companies on exactly this stage: reading the market, choosing the region and the industrial zone, then connecting them with the right partners on the ground, whether developers, contractors or suppliers. Those who prepare their move now will choose their land. The others will take what is left.

Sources: Vietnamese customs and Ministry of Industry and Trade (via VOV), Vietnam's National Statistics Office, US federal data cited by the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Decree 384/2026/NĐ-⁠CP, French Treasury, Bpifrance, Cushman & Wakefield, Savills. Each figure links to its source in the text.